More Swibers ahead? Singapore companies face $12 billion debt scramble in 2017

lundi 31 octobre 2016

Singapore companies, highly exposed to slowing global trade and a lackluster commodity market, face a financing scramble in 2017, as more than $12 billion of their bonds falls due and banks grow wary of lending to the resources sector.

That could trigger more blood-letting in a market that has already seen some high-profile corporate defaults, such as oil services firm Swiber Holdings, which hit the skids in July and went into judicial management this month.

It has also seen an increase in the number of bond issuers trying to renegotiate the terms of their credit to stay afloat, a disturbing signal in a market skewed to retail buyers and smaller issues subject to light scrutiny.

Corporate leverage has risen to increasingly risky levels, according to credit analysts and investors, while banks are becoming more circumspect about extending financing as the quality of their loan books causes concern.

Between now and the end of 2017, according to Reuters data, US$12.4 billion of bonds falls due, but corporate balance sheets in the city state are looking strained.

A Reuters study of 228 non-financial companies' half-year earnings shows that 74 had net debt more than five times their core profit, a level that usually prompts concern among credit analysts, and more than a third of that group were at least twice that level.

"We had not seen Singapore dollar corporate defaults since 2009, but suddenly we see a pick-up in defaults in 2015-2016. This is a warning sign about a refinancing confidence crisis across many sectors, not just commodity-related ones," said Raymond Chia, Head of Credit Research for Asia ex-Japan at Schroders Investment Management.

Light scrutiny

The structure of Singapore's capital markets has left them particularly vulnerable as global trade cools and Chinese growth slows. Commodities have been a mainstay after a frothy 2013 and 2014, and private banking has loomed large, fueling smaller bond deals.

In 2014, private banks accounted for almost half of investments into Singapore dollar corporate debt, a central bank report said last year.

Their participation has helped encourage smaller issues that are not assessed by credit rating agencies and yet are targeted at private wealth investors, analysts say.

"Their bond issues are also mostly unrated, so the layer of scrutiny provided by rating agencies is missing. Many of these deals were mispriced: they priced like investment grade even though they had high-yield profiles," said Harsh Agarwal, Head of Asia Credit Research at Deutsche Bank.

That is now changing - at considerable cost for firms.

Property firm Oxley Holdings, whose short-term debt dwarfs its cash balance, according to its latest accounts, saw yields on its bonds due 2019 jump 220 basis points to 7.5 percent in the past quarter.

And banks, under pressure to increase provisions for bad loans, are pulling back from indebted sectors like real estate, commodities and oil and gas, which dominate Singapore's outstanding S$53 billion ($38 billion) of local currency corporate bonds.

Non-performing loans have risen at all Singapore's three banks in the latest quarterly results, reflecting a decline in loan quality across sectors.

"In the absence of further bank support, refinancing this debt may prove difficult, potentially leading to more defaults over the next year," said Devinda Paranathanthri at UBS Wealth Management, which estimates S$18 billion of local currency denominated bonds are coming due over the next 18 months. Over a quarter are from sectors facing structural headwinds.

The latest sign of strain has been an increase in borrowers asking bondholders to cut them some slack.

Ezra Holdings, Rickmers Maritime, Otto Marine and Marco Polo Marine are just some of the companies that sought bondholder consent this year to loosen the conditions, or covenants, attached to their loans.

"It will continue to be busy, but the question is whether loosening covenants will be adequate to give these companies the lifeline that they need," said Kevin Wong, Singapore-based partner with law firm Linklaters.

"There is a risk these consent solicitations may lead to full-blown debt restructurings."

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More Swibers ahead? Singapore companies face $12 billion debt scramble in 2017

Viacom names Robert Bakish acting CEO

Viacom said on Monday it named Robert Bakish acting chief executive officer effective Nov. 15, replacing Tom Dooley.

Bakish was also named president and CEO of Viacom Global Entertainment Group, a new unit combining the company's international media networks division with its music and entertainment group.

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Valeant shares drop on report of criminal probe of ex-CEO and CFO

Valeant Pharmaceuticals' former CEO and CFO are allegedly the focus of a criminal investigation, Bloomberg reported citing sources.

The company's U.S.-listed shares were down as much as 7.8 percent after the news.

Sources told Bloomberg that U.S. prosecutors may be building a fraud case against the embattled pharmaceutical company and that charges could be brought forward in a matter of weeks.

Former Valeant CEO Michael Pearson was ousted from the company in March, a decision that a person familiar with the situation told CNBC "was not mutual."

The Canadian drugmaker came under fire when The New York Times reported that Valeant and other pharmaceutical companies were using a network of specialty pharmacies to sustain sales of their high-priced drugs and prevent patients and insurers from switching to cheaper generic drugs. Citron Research subsequently published a note calling Valeant the "pharmaceutical Enron."

In response, Valeant formed an ad hoc committee to review the allegations regarding specialty pharmacy Philidor RX Services. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating the relationship between the two companies.

Read the full report on Bloomberg.

This story is developing. Please check back for further updates.

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The woman who helped a way to track the secretive hedge fund industry has died

Lee Hennessee-Gradante, a pioneer who helped create an index to track the secretive hedge fund industry, died on Saturday.

Hennessee-Gradante, 64, was found dead in her apartment in West Palm Beach, Florida, West Palm Beach Police Department spokeswoman Lori Colombino. Results of an autopsy are not yet known, but family spokesman Chase Scott said she likely suffered a stroke.

Nearly 30 years ago, Hennessee-Gradante helped create the Hennessee Hedge Fund Index, widely followed because there was only a limited amount of public information about which hedge fund strategies were making or losing money.

Investor return figures, for example, were even more closely guarded back then than they are today.

Together with her husband, Charles Gradante, she ran New York-based Hennessee Group which sold hedge fund research and portfolio management services to institutional and high net worth clients. At its peak, the group oversaw $1.6 billion in assets.

The couple sold the hedge fund advisory business to Terrapin Asset Management in 2013. At the time the pair said they planned to spend more time on their charitable foundation and philanthropic interests.

Gradante survives her.

Relishing her role as a women in the male-dominated hedge fund industry, Hennessee-Gradante frequently attended industry conferences, mentored women eager to work in finance and co-founded industry association "100 Women in Hedge Funds."

She also groomed relationships with prominent managers and cherished her North Carolina roots, sometimes combining the two.

She often spoke of about her friendships with North Carolinian fund managers Julian Robertson and Louis Bacon.

And in 2000 she served as New York finance chair for Elizabeth Dole, another North Carolina native, when Dole briefly ran for the Republican nomination in the U.S. presidential election.

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New bitcoin rival promises anonymity for online purchases

A new cryptocurrency launched late last week, claiming to allow users to make online purchases anonymously and sparking controversy and a negative reaction from the authorities.

Zcash launched last Friday and is currently worth $498 dollars per coin, in comparison to $706 for one bitcoin.

Zcash uses a technique called "zero-knowledge proofs" to ensure coin exchanges are valid but without revealing extra information to either user. It conceals identifying information from the public blockchain - the massive public ledger that records all transactions of a digital currency - which effectively allows Zcash users to make private and anonymous exchanges.

"Companies need the protection of privacy along their supply chain in order to conduct their business, especially in the context of public blockchains," the Zcash company says on its website.

"In addition, we believe that personal privacy is necessary for core human values like dignity, intimacy, and morality."

But is this level of anonymity technologically possible? Tom Robinson, COO and co-founder of bitcoin specialists Elliptic says it is. Elliptic is able to trace bitcoin transactions and link them to a real world address, helping law enforcement around the globe track illicit activity involving bitcoin.

"I think that it's certainly possible to have a high level of anonymity and Zcash seems to have achieved that," he told CNBC during a phone interview.

However, anonymity could be a barrier to the potential success of Zcash, as it may not receive support from businesses or officials.

"Bitcoin has been accepted by regulators and government because there is some level of accountability," explained Robinson.

Zcash is not the first cryptocurrency to offer advanced anonymity features. Another example is Monero, which claims to offer uses untraceable transactions and private purchases.

According to Robinson, there is demand for greater anonymity among users of crypto currencies as more and more realize that bitcoin can be traced. The main use case for anonymity is for buyers wishing to make purchases from the so-called dark web, an encrypted network of the internet where users can buy illicit items including drugs.

How governments react to Zcash's promise of anonymity will be an important indicator for the wider use and acceptance of cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin, according to Charles Hayter, CEO and founder of Crypto Compare.

"There has been growing interest by the security services from a number of countries in tracking bitcoin after rumours of terrorist activity using the digital currency. The use on the darknet for buying drugs or other illicit will no doubt be a worry and will lead to regulation and blanket bans," Hayter said in a note.

"How founders, partners and investors are treated if there is jarring with authorities will again be a litmus test to the intentions of the authorities."

However, Robinson also pointed out that Zcash has been created by a private company, which - while it does not have to rely on the open-source community to develop the currency as with bitcoin -- could potentially be sued by governments or regulators in order to reveal information.

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Lumber Liquidators falls 12% after larger-than-expected quarterly loss

Lumber Liquidators reported a bigger-than-expected quarterly loss, hurt by higher marketing expenses to woo back customers, and said it could not provide a timeline for potential settlements with regulators, or an outlook for its business.

Shares of the company fell as much as 12.7 percent to $16.13 in morning trade, despite reporting its first quarterly sales rise in six quarters.

Sales of Lumber Liquidators, which owns brands such as Bellawood hardwood flooring, have been hammered since CBS published a report last year that alleged that some of the company's flooring products had high levels of formaldehyde, a known carcinogen.

Since then, the company has faced several lawsuits from investors and has been investigated by several federal agencies, including the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Lumber Liquidators has settled with some regulators, including the U.S. Department of Justice and the California Air Resources Board, to implement a strict environmental compliance plan and conduct a free air-testing program, but is still under investigation by the SEC and the U.S. Attorney's Office for the Eastern District of Virginia.

Lumber Liquidators executives said on a call with analysts, that they "have a lot of work to do," in balancing investments to drive sales and becoming profitable again.

Total sales rose 3.4 percent to $244.1 million, while same-store sales grew 1 percent in the third quarter ended Sept. 30.

Analysts had expected sales of $231.6 million and a same-store sales decline of 3.8 percent.

Net loss, however, widened to $18.44 million, or 68 cents per share, in the quarter, from $8.5 million, or 31 cents per share, a year earlier, partly due to a $4.3 million charge related to settlement of a securities class action lawsuit.

Analysts on average had expected the company to post a loss of 19 cents per share, according to Thomson Reuters.

Shares of Lumber Liquidators have lost more than half of their value since March last year since the CBS report.

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McDonald's to pay $3.75 million in first settlement with franchise workers

McDonald's has agreed to pay $3.75 million to settle a lawsuit claiming it was liable for labor law violations by a California franchisee, marking what lawyers said was the first time the company has settled legal claims by a group of U.S. workers at one of its franchises.

In a filing in U.S. district court in San Francisco on Friday, lawyers representing about 800 employees at five restaurants owned by a single franchisee said Illinois-based McDonald's would pay the workers $1.75 million in back pay and damages and $2 million in legal fees.

The settlement, which must be approved by a federal judge, comes as McDonald's faces claims before two U.S. agencies that it is a "joint employer" of workers at franchise restaurants, a designation that could make the company liable for legal violations by franchisees and require that it bargain with workers who unionize.

McDonald's spokeswoman Terri Hickey said on Monday the company is not a joint employer of franchise workers.

"We entered into this mutually acceptable resolution to avoid the costs and disruption associated with continued litigation," she said.

The 2014 lawsuit claimed McDonald's and the franchisee, Smith Family LP, violated California law by failing to pay overtime, keep accurate pay records and reimburse workers for time spent cleaning uniforms. The franchisee previously settled the claims for $700,000.

Last year, a judge ruled that McDonald's was not the plaintiffs' joint employer under federal and state laws. But he said the company could still be held liable if the workers believed McDonald's was their employer.

In Friday's court filing, lawyers for the workers said the settlement was the first for McDonald's in a class action case brought by franchise employees.

The deal would also require McDonald's to train Smith Family, the franchisee, on the use of corporate software designed to ensure compliance with California's uniquely strict employment laws, according to the court filing.

McDonald's, meanwhile, is in the midst of a trial at the National Labor Relations Board that could determine whether the company is a joint employer under the federal law governing union organizing.

And earlier this month, a union-backed group said it had filed sexual harassment complaints against McDonald's with a federal agency on behalf of 15 workers, most of whom were employed at franchise restaurants.

The case is Ochoa v. McDonald's Corp, U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California, No. 3:14-cv-2098.

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China’s top 5 banks wrote off $40 billion in bad debt in first 3 quarters alone

China's big five banks are losing money from writing off bad debt at a rate faster than they have been able to earn profits or raise capital this year, diminishing hopes that the industry could start to put the worst of China debt problem behind it next year while the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio is still climbing.

Led by the Agricultural Bank of China, which set the industry record for worst NPL ratio of 2.39 per cent, the average NPL ratio at the national "big five" has climbed back to 1.72 per cent, up from 1.69 per cent recorded by the China Banking Regulatory Commission at the end of June. The increase follows a brief hiatus from what seemed to be an improvement from earlier figures.

Total losses from bad assets at the big five amounted to 273.7 billion yuan ($40 billion) in the nine months ended September, versus the 776.9 billion in net profits and 1.8 trillion yuan in new capital they raised mostly through bond and rights issues so far in 2016.

Partly because of central government pressure to fix the bad debt issue, banks are reporting a 54.6 per cent higher bad loan loss figure compared to a year ago. At the same time, net profits came in flat, reaching an average of just 0.89 per cent when excluding a one-off 9.9 per cent gain by Bank of China from a series of internal asset transfers within its Hong Kong business.

"If ICBC could begin to show it is stabilizing on its level of non-performing loans formation, we could start to confirm the thesis that we are to see a peak on the non-performing loans issue in the banking industry next year," said Shujin Chen, research director at DBS Vickers.

The bank, by far the nation's biggest by assets, reported a jump in its NPL ratio to 1.62 per cent at the end of the third quarter, up from 1.55 per cent in June.

ICBC also took the lead in testing the government's regulatory line by lowering its bad debt provision level to 136 per cent, down from the previous 143 per cent. China's banks are expected to hold a minimum of 150 per cent more capital against their balance of bad debt.

China Construction Bank, the nation's next bigger player, said it also lowered its provision below the requirement, although only to 148.8 per cent, while Bank of Communications' provision level stood at 150.3 per cent.

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In comparison, banks with higher NPL ratios kept well above the line. Agricultural Bank of China said its provision was at 172.7 per cent, while Bank of China, the bank that led the biggest debt write-offs at 64 billion yuan this year, was at 155.8 per cent.

"The provisions go down when the balance of the banks' non-performing loans increase or if they write off more assets, which would wear off the reserves," said Chen. "[The People's Bank of China] has been using price measures to change banks' behaviour. But the price impact has not been especially strong.

"Compared to the central bank, the China Banking Regulatory Commission could be more concerned about the provisions level. It does not have a very clear guidance on the matter [when banks drop below the required ratio]," Chen said.

With ICBC's lead, the end result was thinner average cash buffers across all banks, which on average saw a full 11 percentage points drop in the reserves they hold against the bad loans, to an average of 152.8 per cent, from the 163.9 per cent level in the prior quarter.

Some analysts believe the banks could get away with a temporary dip in their reserves as it came about after the government urged lenders to speed up resolution of the NPL issue.

However, Chen said she expect there could be informal discipline measures, such as having ICBC's product launches blocked.

The International Monetary Fund recently said mainland banks' cash reserves may well cover their "expected" loan losses, but they were still short when potential further losses from "at risk" corporate loans were considered.

Regulators in other parts of the world have been relaxing similar requirements for capital. BNP Paribas was one such beneficiary under a recent relaxation in buffer calculation requirements under the European Central Bank.

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Canada and European Union sign a free trade deal, but battle not over yet

dimanche 30 octobre 2016

The European Union and Canada signed a free trade agreement on Sunday that aims to generate jobs and growth though it must still clear some 40 national and regional parliaments in Europe in the coming years to enter fully into force.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau signed the treaty along with the heads of EU institutions, a step that should enable a provisional implementation of the pact early in 2017 with the removal of most import duties.

The Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement's (CETA) passage has not been smooth.

French-speakers in southern Belgium, a minority within their own small country and accounting for less than 1 percent of the 508 million EU consumers likely to be affected by CETA, raised objections that held up the deal until a breakthrough on Thursday, confirmed by regional parliamentary votes on Friday.

"We are setting standards which will determine globalization in the coming years," European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker told a news conference alongside Trudeau. "Nothing in other trade agreements will be able to remain below the level of what we have reached today with Canada."

The Canada agreement is seen as a springboard to a larger EU deal with the United States, known as the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Treaty (TTIP), which has been the target of labor unions and environmental and other protest groups.

EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom said TTIP talks are not dead, contrary to what some politicians in Germany and France have said, but would need to wait for the next U.S. president — who will take office in January — to resume.

Supporters say CETA will increase Canadian-EU trade by 20 percent and boost the EU economy by 12 billion euros ($13 billion) a year and Canada's by C$12 billion ($9 billion).

For Canada the deal is important to reduce its reliance on the neighboring United States as an export market.

For the EU, it is a first trade pact with a G7 country and a success plucked from the jaws of defeat at a time when the bloc's credibility has taken a beating from Britain's vote in June to leave after 43 years of membership.

Around 100 anti-globalization protesters clashed with police outside the venue in Brussels, trying to break down barriers in front of the main entrance and hurling red paint. A Reuters photographer saw police detain some people.


Sunday's signing will not be the last act.

Assuming the European Parliament gives its assent, CETA could come into force partially early next year. However, full implementation, which would include a contentious investment protection system, will ensue only after clearance by more than three dozen national and regional parliaments.

The Belgian experience shows this outcome is no given, but Trudeau said provisional application would unlock 98 percent of CETA's key measures and that consumers and businesses would immediately feel its benefits.

"We are confident that demonstrating that trade is good for the middle classes (...) will make sure that everybody gets that this is a good thing for our economies and that it is also a good thing for the world," Trudeau said.

The main focus of protests against CETA and TTIP remains the system to protect foreign company's investments. Critics say its provision for arbitration panels to rule on disputes with states can be abused by multinational companies to dictate public policy, such as on environmental standards.

The EU and Canada say their investment protection system guarantees the right of governments to regulate, make use of independent judges and be more transparent.

The deal will eliminate tariffs on almost 99 percent of goods. The beneficiaries would include, for example, carmakers or the EU textile sector, for which Canadian duties of up to 18 percent can be imposed at present.

Service companies could also benefit and EU companies would be able to tender for public contracts at Canadian provincial and municipal level, the first time Canada has offered this.

Canada would be able to send larger quotas of pork, beef and wheat to the EU market, and EU dairy producers would be able to export more than double the current amount of "high quality" cheeses to Canada.

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Tata turmoil continues as top executives quit: Report

Three senior group executives at India's Tata Sons have resigned, people close to the matter told Reuters on Saturday, as management woes appeared to deepen at the $100 billion conglomerate following the stunning ouster of its chairman.

The three executives were members of an executive council disbanded after Tata dismissed chairman Cyrus Mistry on Monday. The council, comprising five senior Tata group executives and Mistry, was tasked with creating long-term value for stakeholders and boosting returns on investment.

Those who quit are group human resources chief N.S. Rajan; group business development and public affairs head Madhu Kannan; and group strategy executive Nirmalya Kumar.

Reuters could not reach any of the three for comment. Tata did not respond to an e-mail request for comment on Saturday.

Reuters reported earlier this week that the other two council executives, Mukund Rajan and Harish Bhat, would take on senior level responsibilities within the Tata group.

One person close to Tata said there was no certainty all the positions would be re-filled as the group's structure is likely to change with Mistry's exit.

Another person, however, said replacements could be named as early as next week, though there was no management crisis as each Tata company has its own team of public affairs and business development executives.

But some governance experts say the resignations of senior executives risk increasing the sense of uncertainty at Tata.

"In the short term, obviously there'll be some disruption at the group level" said Shriram Subramanian of InGovern, a shareholder advocacy group.

"People leaving at senior levels shows there's a lack of confidence between the two sides, and that needs to be reinstated at the earliest to contain any longer-term damage."

Disagreements between Mistry and his predecessor Ratan Tata, the family patriarch and now stand-in chairman of the 148-year-old conglomerate, have turned a boardroom battle into a damaging public spat fuelled by leaked letters and tit-for-tat accusations.

Mistry alleges corporate governance failures and mismanagement at Tata, which has dismissed the allegations as "malicious".

CNBC-TV18 news channel reported on Saturday that Darius Khambatta, a senior lawyer close to both Tata and Mistry, had initiated mediation talks between the two parties. Khambatta told Reuters he was "not mediating between them," but declined to comment on whether he had met Tata and Mistry.

India's financial crime-fighting agency will look into Mistry's allegations about mismanagement at Tata's aviation ventures, another person familiar with the matter told Reuters.

In a leaked letter to the Tata board, Mistry has said he was opposed to Tata's aviation partnerships with Malaysia's AirAsia Bhd and Singapore Airlines.

In the case of Air Asia, a forensic investigation had found "fraudulent transactions" of 220 million rupees ($3.29 million) involving "non-existent parties", he alleged.

That prepared the ground for a "probe into the allegation of mismanagement of funds," said an official at the national Enforcement Directorate, on condition of anonymity.

The agency was not immediately available to comment. Tata did not respond to Reuters questions on this matter. An AirAsia India spokeswoman said she had no immediate comment.

India's capital markets regulator is already looking into Mistry's allegations related to violations of corporate governance rules at Tata.


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Nissan warned UK prime minister operations would close without Europe trading deal

samedi 29 octobre 2016

Nissan warned the British government that the carmaker would wind down UK operations if it was not guaranteed competitive trading conditions with Europe, according to two people involved in negotiations over future investment in its Sunderland plant.

During talks that led to a meeting between Theresa May and Nissan chief Carlos Ghosn, the Japanese carmaker said it was prepared to shift production to its Spanish and French factories in a move that would lead to the closure of its British plant and other UK sites.

Government assurances offered to Nissan led to its decision this week to locate two new cars at the plant from 2019, safeguarding more than 30,000 jobs at the site and in its supply chain.

Sunderland's closure would have caused a political tidal wave and set a precedent for other carmakers to locate future work outside Britain.

Rival carmakers are now demanding the same assurances offered to Nissan to shield them from the impact of Brexit. While technology and pharmaceuticals companies are prioritising visas for skilled workers, other exporters including chemicals manufacturers have set tariff-free access to the EU as a priority.

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"Now is the time to influence — to prepare our arguments and to get our arguments in," said Terry Scuoler, chief executive of EEF, the manufacturers' body.

The prime minister's office faces calls from Labour to disclose details of its exact pledges to Nissan, including the contents of a letter written by Greg Clark, the business secretary, to Nissan's executive committee in Japan.

According to several people familiar with the contents of the letter, it contains the same assurances that were offered to Mr Ghosn by the prime minister — namely that the carmaker would face no change in its trading conditions following Britain's exit from the EU.

One of the people involved in the talks said Nissan had made clear that any future Qashqai investment was critical to Nissan's survival in Britian: "Our whole UK operation is linked to Sunderland." In total the company employs close to 8,000 people in the UK, with 7,000 at the factory, 500 at a research centre in Milton Keynes and around 50 at a design studio in West London.

These other sites have a "natural relationship" to the Sunderland plant, the person added, and it was "critical to get the Qashqai" to safeguard these in the long term.

The Qashqai, a small family SUV, accounts for more than half of the nearly 500,000 vehicles produced at the site, of which almost 80 per cent are exported to the EU.

Without the car, the plant would be forced to lay off workers and would struggle to be profitable.

The Nissan Leaf, also made at the site, would be likely to be moved to a plant in France in several years' time when it came up for renewal. The French plant currently produces the same-sized Nissan Micra.

With the plant closed, the ancillary operations such as a battery assembly site in Sunderland, and the R&D and design functions would all be wound down and moved to be closer to the production of the vehicles, according to one person familiar with the contingency plans.

Number 10 and Nissan both denied that the potential closure of Sunderland was discussed at the meeting between Mr Ghosn and the prime minister.

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Western brands seeing recovery in the Chinese spirits market

vendredi 28 octobre 2016

Western spirits are starting to see a recovery in China, driven by demand from the growing middle class for premium and iconic American brands.

Following the Chinese government's sweeping anti-extravagance crackdown in 2013, which led to shrinking demand for the high-end liquor, premium brands are indicating that retail demand is returning, as distributors are seeing renewed interest in international whiskey labels.

That demand is being boosted by whiskey bars and tasting clubs, which have focused on imported spirits. Meanwhile, more Chinese restaurants are stocking premium imports.

Whiskey auctions are likewise becoming more prevalent, as spirits are once again being gifted more frequently. That's particularly true of super-deluxe Scotch and malts.

Still, the market remains dominated by traditional drinks such as baijiu, which accounts for an estimated 90 percent share of the spirits market, according to Credit Suisse.

"In places like China we think there's a huge opportunity there to win within the refreshment occasion," said Greg Hughes, U.S. General Manager of Beam Suntory, whose leading American brands include Jim Beam, Maker's Mark and several others.

One spirits category that's particularly strong is single-malt whiskey, which "is increasingly seen as the spirit for connoisseurs," according to IWSR, which tracks consumption and trends in alcoholic beverages.

Despite Japan being one the strongest overseas markets for Scotch by volume, it has struggled in China and Taiwan. But Diageo — the world's largest premium drinks company — sees opportunity in the super-premium end of the market, where cases usually go for upwards of $200. Growth in that segment is being driven by the middle class and a nascent recovery among wealthy consumers.

"The number of whiskey bars or collectors clubs are…increasing in tier-one cities in China, with now over 100 new bars opening up last year," Sam Fischer, Diageo's president of Greater China and Asia, told analysts at a presentation this month.

"And we also see the growing trend of single-malts, as consumers look for brands of quality and heritage."

Overall, China's spirits industry is forecast to generate $143.2 billion in sales in 2016, up 8.3 percent from the prior year, according to Euromonitor International. That would be the best annual growth since 2011, when sales growth paced in the double digits. Euromonitor predicts the industry will bring in $183 billion by 2020.

Increasingly, American brands are playing a larger role in that growth. U.S. spirits exports to China reached an all-time high of $15.1 million in 2015, up 35 percent from 2013 levels, according to the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States, a trade group.

"We had stability with on the one hand China improving but on the other hand Africa, Middle East getting tougher," Gilles Bogaert, managing director of finance and operations for Pernod Ricard said last week while discussing the French distiller's financial results to industry analysts. Pernod, the world's second-largest spirits company after Diageo, has global brands including Chivas Regal and Jameson.

Even some of the cognac business in China, a category that has been challenged in recent years, has started to improve.

"We are positively also surprised by the acceleration we are experiencing in Greater China," Luca Marotta, chief financial officer of France's Remy Cointreau, said last week.

In September, the company's Remy Martin division opened a boutique store in a luxury mall in Beijing. The store allows customers to taste pricey Louis XIII Cognac, and dine on caviar and iberico ham. There are miniature bottles as well as the Le Mathusalem version, a larger six-liter size that can cost around $3,000 per bottle.

When asked if the Chinese market was seeing a softening or relaxation in consumer attitudes towards extravagant consumption, Marotta said "there are a lot of rich people that not only want to be pleasured and to buy and drink something very special."

But "it is more the fact that Louis XIII is no more a product of the extravagance habits; it's a more normal upscale product for everybody. Which is good, because it seems that the demographics can be very profitable for this product."

Yet while China's spirits market offers opportunity to Western brands, challenges remain. Almost three-fourths of the alcoholic beverage consumption in the world's most populous nation is for the local baijiu drink or beer, according to Credit Suisse.

To grow their share of the market, a group of American distilled spirits products will be showcased at a Hong Kong International Wine and Spirits Fair in November. A separate marketing event will be held in Shanghai.

A total of 16 leading American distiller brands will be featured, ranging from Beam Suntory's Maker's Mark and Jim Beam to Brown-Forman's Jack Daniel's and Woodford Reserve brands, according to a release by the Distilled Spirits Council of the U.S.

The U.S. craft spirits industry continues to grow, and reached 1,315 distilleries as of August 2015, according to the IWSR. The group predicts the number of distilleries could surpass 2,800 by 2020, or what it called "near-Prohibition status of an estimated 3,000 registered distilleries."

"Given bourbon's fast growth and the specter of M&A, the number of new craft spirits entrants is not surprising," RBC Capital Markets analyst Nik Modi said in a research report Thursday. Nonetheless, the analyst questions whether we could be seeing "a bourbon bulge."

Hughes, the Beam Suntory executive, concedes there are a lot of new entrants and brands emerging, and not just in Kentucky's bourbon country.

"We can't rest on our laurels as there are great distillers out there all over the country laying down great whiskey, and we need to do the same to keep up with what competitors are producing," he said.

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Western brands seeing recovery in the Chinese spirits market

Polls tighten for Trump but along came GDP

It was a bit of a good news bad news morning Friday for Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump.

On the good side, polls now show a clear tightening of the race with Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton's lead shrinking from 12 points to just 4 in The Washington Post/ABC News tracking poll. The change helped reduce Clinton's lead in the Real Clear Politics Average to 5.3 percentage points, still a solid advantage less than two weeks before Election Day.

On the bad news front, third-quarter GDP growth came in at 2.9 percent, a better-than-expected reading that dents Trump's case that the economy has stalled out. Trump has spent much of the campaign describing the U.S. economy as a disaster, a hollowed hellscape of shuttered factories and violent inner cities menaced by dangerous illegal immigrants. "Right now our country is dying at 1 percent GDP," the GOP nominee said during the third debate.

The latest GDP report — coupled with unemployment at just 5 percent and wages rising — undermines that case. "This is still another reason why Trump will probably lose. The economy is in decent shape so decent that the Fed will have to raise interest rates later this year," Greg Valliere, chief global strategist at Horizon Investments, told me Friday.

"This report shows a solid economy with — ironically — decent export growth. Clinton simply has to avoid gloating. But this is a big plus for her, and she may get another pleasant surprise when the October jobs report is released next Friday."

The struggling economy — and voter fatigue with Democratic control of the White House — was always supposed to be the Republican's ticket to winning in November. But Trump never managed to stay focused on the economy, despite the strong appeal of his anti-free trade message in several Rust Belt states. The GOP nominee often found himself mired in controversies of his own making, from attacking the family of a slain U.S. solider to his crude comments about women and repeated fights with fellow Republicans.

Trump's lead as the candidate better able to handle the economy — consistently rated by voters as the top issue in 2016 — has also dwindled. A CNN/ORC poll in September found Trump with a 16 point edge on the economy. The same survey this week showed Trump's edge down to 4. And Clinton's wide lead on other issues including having the temperament to handle the presidency and manage foreign policy blows out the GOP nominee's advantage on pocket-book issues.

Republicans were also seen as favored to win this year based on polls showing a large majority of Americans view the nation as on the wrong track. But that figure no longer appears to have much political relevance. The numbers have stayed terrible even as President Barack Obama's approval rating has risen to more than 50 percent and people express more confidence in their own economic situation while spending at an impressive clip.

Pollsters now ascribe much of the wrong-track numbers to general dissatisfaction with the political process and the vitriolic nature of the campaign. "The wrong-track number does not seem to respond to objective economic change," Charles Franklin, a polling expert at Marquette University Law School told me. "I think it's become a pretty poor indicator."

Still, Trump is clearly making the race closer in the final days, though his path to 270 electoral votes remains difficult if not impossible. Trump's surge in the ABC tracking poll stems from Republicans returning to the GOP nominee and some independent voters moving his way. The polls now move in a clear pattern. Clinton moves into big leads after major events like the presidential debates only to see that lead erode with no national events to focus voters' attention on the things they don't like about Trump.

The overall pattern is similar to 2012 when Mitt Romney regularly closed polling gaps with Obama. But unlike in 2012, when Romney closed out the race essentially tied with Obama in the polls, Trump is still down by a significant margin. No candidate in the modern era has won the White House when trailing by 4 points or more this close to Election Day.

Most of what we are seeing now is Trump moving closer to a more traditional loss scenario rather than an epic defeat that could see states like Georgia and Texas move away from him. It remains possible that Trump could continue to gain and make the race much closer than people expect. But it would take a historic comeback and require at least some Democrats to move away from Clinton. And Trump is getting no help from economic data that show America is not doing as terribly as the GOP nominee would have us believe.

—Ben White is Politico's chief economic correspondent and a CNBC contributor. He also authors the daily tip sheet Politico Morning Money [http://ift.tt/Hq49Zu]. Follow him on Twitter @morningmoneyben.

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Polls tighten for Trump but along came GDP

Expect oil to head higher even without an OPEC deal: Analyst

Oil prices have been under pressure this week as investors raised doubts over whether an agreement on a production cut between OPEC and non-OPEC members would soon materialize.

However, even if a deal over an output cut doesn't emerge soon; one analyst believes prices are still going to climb.

"We think even without an OPEC deal, prices are headed higher and that's purely because of fundamentals," Miswin Mahesh, oil analyst at Barclays, told CNBC on Friday.

"Demand, supply — when we do the numbers, we're getting a deficit as early as Q1 to Q2."

When looking at the first to second quarter, Mahesh said it was possible prices could head towards the $50 to $55 per barrel range.

Meanwhile, Chantico Global's CEO Gina Sanchez argued on CNBC's Street Signs Europe, that unless the market sees some significant news out of the OPEC meeting—which she said she didn't anticipate—oil is likely to trade back down to around $40 per barrel.

Representatives from OPEC and non-OPEC countries are expected to begin two-day negotiations on Friday to hash out plans over a possible output-capping deal, which is expected to be presented to the OPEC meeting by the end of November, Reuters reported. However doubts over the discussions pushed crude prices into the red on Friday, with U.S. crude at $49.20 and Brent at $50.04 at 2.00 p.m. U.K. time.

What this technical meeting suggests is that OPEC wants to convey to the market that it's taking this output discussion very seriously; however on the face of it, it appears the "market is actually losing hope now", Mahesh told CNBC.

"Besides the Saudis, no other country has actually come out and said we will also cut. The other GCC members might. Iran has said they don't want a fixed number; they need a percentage number which is a moving target as well. So it's a very, very complex and it's just getting harder by the day," said Mahesh.

The uncertainty over what OPEC will do to fix the current state of the energy market raises questions over what the outcome of the November talks will be.

"Looks like what we're headed to is a namesake deal — we probably get a three to six month deal where the Saudis do something just to sort of 'save face'," Mahesh said.

"And their credibility's also on the line here, as much as OPEC's is, and the market has put a lot of faith in the Saudi word, more so than the OPEC word."

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Expect oil to head higher even without an OPEC deal: Analyst

I did it for my shareholders: Martin Shkreli has lunch with the FT

On the way to meet me for lunch, Martin Shkreli is detained by two strangers who want to have their photo taken with "the drug guy". That is one name for him — although some have called him far worse. "Nobody stopped me to punch me, as you can see," he says.

Shkreli's ability to stroll down a Manhattan sidewalk without provoking an act of violence would be unremarkable but for his status as the personification of US corporate greed, acquired after he bought a life-saving medicine last year before swiftly raising the price from $13.50 to $750 per pill. His decision to inflate the price of Daraprim, a decades-old medicine for Aids and cancer patients, drew a sharp rebuke from Hillary Clinton, who described the 5,000 per cent increase as "outrageous". Her remark sent pharma stocks spiraling and catapulted the issue of drug costs to the forefront of the presidential debate.

Despite stopping for selfies, Shkreli is already in situ when I arrive at Felidia, a traditional Italian restaurant in Midtown, sitting at a table in the middle of the dark, empty dining room. An overhead lamp throws shadows across his face, which breaks into his trademark smirk as I approach. The smile became infamous last year during his disastrous tour of TV studios to defend the price of Daraprim, when he alienated viewers with his apparent disregard for the suffering of patients. "I became a victim of editing," he says, as I take my seat.

Before last year's scandal, the 33-year-old from blue-collar Brooklyn was all but unknown outside pharma circles, where he had a reputation as one of the industry's most promising young entrepreneurs. His business acumen netted him a fortune, which he claims was worth roughly $200m at one point.

But it all came crashing down. The impression that Shkreli was revelling in his status as a greedy villain did not help. Then the FBI woke him on a rainy December morning in 2015 and frogmarched him to a Brooklyn courthouse to face charges of defrauding investors to the tune of $11m. He is due to stand trial in June for allegedly running his hedge fund as though it were a "Ponzi-like scheme".

More from the Financial Times:
Martin Shkreli, a provocateur in the pharmaceutical wars
Martin Shkreli accused of operating 'Ponzi-like' scheme
As prices soar, US drugmakers say they bear an unfair burden

If the private Shkreli is any different to the pugnacious public persona, it is not immediately apparent. "This is my date spot if you will," he says, gesturing to the dark panelled walls of his favourite haunt, as he launches straight into his defence. I should not, he swiftly makes clear, expect any regrets.

"To me the drug was woefully underpriced," he says. Rather, he thinks he should have charged a higher price still because Daraprim can keep people alive: "It is not a question of 'Is this fair?', or 'What did you pay for it?', or 'When was it invented'. It should be more expensive in many ways".

He boasts of other attempts to buy old drugs for fatal diseases with the "ingenious plan" of inflating their prices as well, and suggests that executives who eschew such tactics are, in effect, defrauding their investors. "If you have a drug that is $100 for one course of therapy, and you know that you can charge $100,000, what should shareholders think when you say, 'I'd rather not take the heat'?" he asks.

When I arranged the Lunch, I was told that Shkreli would not want to discuss the impending court case. Yet he appears incapable of speaking about anything else. He confidently predicts that he will prevail, and that his notoriety will help sway the jury. "I have this fringe theory that I've sort of stress-tested a little bit — the more polarising and popular a case is, the more likely an acquittal," he says, citing the cases of OJ Simpson, Casey Anthony, who stood trial for her daughter's murder, and Sean "P Diddy" Combs, whose attorney now works for Shkreli. "What's fascinating for all these cases? They were all widely seen to be guilty."

Despite our having sat down half an hour ago, neither of us has glanced at the menu. The trial is "all for political show", Shkreli continues, warming to his theme, and the case would never have been pursued were it not for the price-gouging controversy. "These investigations started years ago and they'd meandered for years. You know that being a public figure is instantly grounds for prosecution."

Given that Shkreli believes he was targeted for the Daraprim controversy, I ask again whether he wishes he had done anything differently. "My whole life has been one theme of self-sacrifice for my investors," he replies, without batting an eyelid. "I did it for my shareholders' benefit because that's my job. The political risk is being shamed — and shame isn't dilutive to earnings per share."

A waiter arrives to take our order. Shkreli asks them to choose for him, and I follow suit. Shkreli has already dismissed the sommelier, but I have another stab and suggest that we take a glass of wine. He demurs.

The conversation, like any other in the US these days, soon turns to the presidential election. While not registered to vote, Shkreli instinctively supports Donald Trump despite his flaws. "The symbolism of his success is in many ways what you're voting for. It's sort of like the Statue of Liberty; he's an icon that represents something.

"I think that his supporters endorse being rash, being American, being polarising and having this un-PC, unedited attitude. In many ways it's not a surprise that I identify with that." Later, it occurs to me how often Shkreli himself speaks in Trumpisms, like this: "I've had my photo taken a lot with people who say, 'I support you, you inspire me, you're the American dream'."

Despite her role in his defenestration, Shkreli says he does not hold a "deep animus" towards Clinton, although he dismisses her as "a deeply political, bureaucratic creature".

"If I'm greedy and addicted to money, she's greedy and addicted to power — and apparently a little bit of money too," he says, referring to the millions of dollars in personal wealth amassed by Clinton, who delivered a series of lucrative paid speeches to Wall Street and Silicon Valley in the years following her tenure as US secretary of state.

"I've built companies I can point to. What can she point to? A career in public service? She made a bunch of money doing that? It makes no freaking sense."

Our primi piatti arrive: two bowls of Tajarin, a thin homemade pasta, drizzled in butter and oil with a dusting of freshly grated black truffle, accompanied by steaming cups of butternut squash soup.

I tuck into the spaghetti, which is delicious but would be better still with something from the wine list, and I silently bemoan that daytime drinking is not among Shkreli's flaws. We barely touch the soup, ill-suited as it is to the glorious autumnal day.

Shkreli eats slowly, his progress impeded by constant fidgeting; I lose count of the number of times he twiddles his hair or fastens and unfastens his grey blazer, worn over a white pinstripe shirt and blue jeans. The restaurant is busier now and he strains to be heard.

Despite confidently predicting his acquittal, the prospect of time in prison weighs on him. "Oh, I've certainly thought about it. Anyone in my position would," he says. "The attorney could have a bad day. There could be a surprise witness, surprise evidence. If I go on the stand, there could be a mistake on my own part."

He thinks any prison sentence would be short — a year or so — and that he would be popular with his cellmates. "One person told me that the inmates at the white-collar prison are gigantic, huge Shkreli supporters," he says.

Given that he spends most of his time cooped up in his apartment, where he broadcasts chunks of his day over the internet, he thinks jail would be survivable. "If you look at my life on a daily basis, it's not very different from a prison-like condition," he says, "although I'm going to miss my computer."

He has no doubt that he will make a comeback regardless, reeling off a list of convicted and disgraced executives who rebuilt their careers after being freed from jail. He is already working on a new venture, a technology company that will soon be announced, although he declines to discuss the details. "I think it's going to be remarkable and, dare I say, revolutionary."

Shkreli, who stopped eating around halfway through his primo piatto, eventually surrenders the unfinished dish to an impatient server, who replaces it with slices of seared tuna fillet on a caponata of squash and celery root. He looks shocked. "Oh, I didn't know there was a main course," he says.

The pharmaceuticals industry was quick to brand Shkreli as an egregious outlier following the Daraprim controversy. In private, many executives blame him for the public outcry over the price of drugs that threatens to crimp their profits and bonuses.

"I heard from a friend that these folks are actually jealous," he says of those who disavowed him. "They're 60-something years old and they're saying, 'Oh gosh, he outsmarted us'. They can feign all the outrage they want but the reality is, I saw an opportunity in pharma, I made a huge fortune, and they didn't.

"They are no different from the maître d' of this restaurant — they are there to look good, manage the place, act important and do absolutely nothing," he says, gesturing towards the head waiter. "And unlike the maître d' they get paid a lot of money."

Perhaps the only people who inspire more venom are former business associates, like the employee who quit his job shortly after receiving a large stock award. Shkreli responded by harassing his family — sending messages to his son on Facebook and posting a letter to his wife that read: "I hope to see you and your four children homeless and will do whatever I can to assure this."

At last: something he must regret. Many people have said or done awful things when blinded by rage, but bringing his wife and children into things was surely a mistake. Would he take it back if he could? Not a bit of it: "I saw him to be a good family man and I wrote a relatively calm letter. I'd had success in the past appealing to the family."

Shkreli has barely disturbed the thin slices of pink fish on his plate but assures our concerned waiter that everything was fine. Dessert is an "almost Tiramisu" — a concoction of cream, Nutella and hazelnuts — that is too sickly without the traditional coffee kick. He orders an espresso. I ask for a cup of tea.

"I like being an iconoclast," he tells me, insisting that he is unfazed by how others view him. Yet he often betrays a desperation to know what people think, recently going so far as to hire a professional polling company to survey public opinion: "It skewed 60/40, like/dislike," he says.

Shkreli insists the public has him all wrong, and takes offence at the perception that he has lived a privileged life. His parents emigrated from eastern Europe in the 1970s to start anew in the US, where they raised four children. His mother still speaks only broken English. "My parents were janitors. I went to public high school. I was one of the only white kids in junior high. I don't know why that makes me entitled."

The family's cramped apartment was a few blocks from the Atlantic Ocean in Sheepshead Bay, a working-class enclave of Brooklyn where Trump's father made a name for himself by building affordable housing. "When my parents came to America, they began to learn who the Trumps were and in many ways they symbolised the American dream," he recalls.

The media furore and his trial have brought the "somewhat dysfunctional" Shkreli family closer, he says, and they recently shared a meal just a few tables away. "It was our first family dinner in a restaurant — ever." He admits to having "what you could call a complex," which he attributes to parents "whose theories on discipline are very excessive".

As far as personal friendships go, there are few to speak of. "There's nobody to just have a beer with and that, in some ways, is sort of sad." He has had "an inordinate amount of ex-girlfriends," he claims, but now there is no one of note, his most recent attachment having ended shortly after he was charged. "Since then the 'celebrity and notoriety' have fostered some pretty unhealthy relationships."

More recently, Shkreli has started to flirt with the alt-right, a loose political collective whose angry concerns are best defined by their gender and the colour of their skin: male and white. But despite his full-throated support for unbridled free markets, I sense he has little interest in the identity politics that fires up this contentious group. "It's for sympathy, I suppose," he says. "People will defend me based on my inclusion."

Solace also comes from friends he has made online, and from Trashy, a rescue cat he rehomed. "She liked to live in garbage cans and near dumpsters and things like that. She was very afraid of everything. She'd hide under the sink for two or three months. Now she sleeps in my bed and she's made this process quite a bit easier; at least one thing loves me in the world."

After two and a half hours, lunch is over and so, it seems, is the act. I find myself even enjoying his company. We linger a while and the conversation meanders to some strange places.

He speaks of his love of Shakespeare and magical realist literature, and describes how he is captivated by science and medicine. "I've never done any art, but I think if you look at X-ray crystallography, it's beautiful," he says. He is obsessed with chess but was recently beaten in a tournament by a nine-year-old. And then he confesses to mental health problems in the past.

"I see a psychiatrist. I have done since I was 18. I started having panic attacks and they were pretty bad. Then I took this one drug and I've been taking it for 15 years. One of the reasons I love pharma is my experience of that drug."

The drug in question is a version of Effexor, an antidepressant that was discovered around 30 years after Daraprim. Later I look up the price — as little as 17 cents a pill. The medicine, he says, is a miracle. "It has made me invincible in some ways."

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I did it for my shareholders: Martin Shkreli has lunch with the FT

Xerox's quarterly revenue falls nearly 3 percent

Xerox's quarterly revenue fell nearly 3 percent, the seventh straight quarter of decline, as sales of its printers and copiers continued to fall.

However, Xerox reported net income attributable to the company of $181 million, or 17 cents per share, in the third quarter ended Sept. 30, compared with a net loss of $34 million, or 4 cents per share, a year earlier.

Total revenue fell to $4.21 billion from $4.33 billion.

Xerox, which said in February it would separate its legacy printer operations from its business-process outsourcing unit, said the separation was on track to be completed by the end of the year.


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Pontianaks and peanut-butter pumpkins: This is Halloween, Singapore-style

jeudi 27 octobre 2016

Halloween is serious business for Resorts World Sentosa (RWS), which operates the Universal Studios theme park in Singapore and a Halloween Horror Nights event that grows in scale every year.

This year, the event's sixth, it takes a small army of 400 actors, 120 makeup artists and a host of other staff to transforming the venue every nightfall into a scene straight out of a horror movie. Cheery storefronts on the main stretch of the theme park are draped with cotton-wool cobwebs and the sound-system broadcasts menacing sound effects instead of the usual upbeat music.

RWS event organizers told CNBC that 170,000 visitors attended Halloween Horror Nights last year, when the event ran 14 days (or, nights). The event will run for an additional 2 days to cater to the snaking queues, finishing on 31 October.

Each year, more Singaporean businesses are following RWS to respond to growing demand for novelty goods and services celebrating Halloween.

But localization is key in selling U.S. Halloween traditions to Singapore.

Halloween Horror Nights features supernatural creatures from both the Western and Asian canon. Among the zombies and ghouls are Asian horror staples like the fox spirit, a shape-shifting spirit common in East Asian mythology, and the pontianak, a female vampire ghost that originates from Malaysian and Indonesian folklore.

"Horror with a distinctively Singapore flavor has been a bit hit with fans in previous editions," Jason Horkin, senior vice president of attractions at RWS, said.

Local venues associated with the supernatural also make an appearance. Among the five haunted houses that horror fans at Universal Studios can visit is a replica of Old Changi Hospital, an abandoned hospital in the city-state.

There is, however, one aspect of Halloween that has survived the migration to Asia: candy. When October rolls around, retailers from supermarkets to specialty food stores pull out all the stops to give customers an authentic Halloween shopping experience.

Candylicious, a confectionery emporium with stores in Singapore and Malaysia, begins stocking Halloween themed products from September. While the company said that the more conventional Christmas and Chinese New Year holiday periods saw more customers looking for a sugar fix, sales did pick up in the week before Halloween.

And although the jury is still out on what the best Halloween candy is, Candylicious reckoned its most popular products so far were Reese's Peanut Butter Pumpkins and candy corn.

Niche businesses in Singapore are also cashing in on the festivities.

One of these is Custom Costumes & Merchandise, one of the largest costume rental companies in the country. The company reported a 50 percent increase in costume rentals during Halloween season, compared to average monthly rental numbers.

"Halloween is basically the craziest period of the year," Sanee Neo, a sales manager at Custom Costumes, told CNBC.

He said customers booked outfits from the company's selection of more than 50,000 costumes up to a month in advance of Halloween in order to keep up with the latest in popular culture. This year, costumes for DC Comics characters have been in high demand due to the "Batman vs Superman: Dawn of Justice" and "Suicide Squad" films.

The F&B sector in Singapore, meanwhile, has well and truly capitalized on Halloween.

The Lo & Behold Group, a lifestyle and hospitality company, threw its first "Alice in Wonderland"-themed Halloween party in 2009 at The White Rabbit, a restaurant located in a restored 1930s chapel.

"We've definitely seen the crowd gain more and more momentum over the years," Tammi Lin, marketing manager at Lo & Behold, said, with the crowd growing by 15 to 20 percent each year and 700 partygoers attending last year's bash.

The company is aware it's not the only local business to co-opt Halloween as a marketing ploy, so puts a lot of effort into marketing its events. This year, Lo & Behold has signed up the iconic World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE) group as its party partner, to complement its chosen "Fight Club" theme.

The guest profile at Lo & Behold's Halloween parties is a "good 50-50 split between Singaporeans and expatriates," according to a spokesperson, which suggests that in Singapore, everyone's keen for a frightfully good time.

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Pontianaks and peanut-butter pumpkins: This is Halloween, Singapore-style

Huawei boss: Smartphones will be totally different by 2020. Here’s what’s going to change

Huawei made a major push into smartphone sector just six years ago, but already sits behind only industry stalwarts Apple and Samsung in terms of global sales.

And by its tenth year in the business, the Chinese tech-and-telco behemoth expects both the smartphone market and its position to be very different.

"The first Apple iPhone was launched in 2007 and it has been about 10 years now," Ken Hu, one of Huawei's three rotating chief executives, says. "We anticipate that by 2020, there will be another big transformation for smart devices."

Hu points to the deployment of 5G - the next major update in telecommunication standards - as well as more intelligent devices driven by artificial intelligence (AI), and product feature improvements as key factors that will drive transformation.

"We do not expect future technology to look, sound and feel as it does now … Smart technology, as well as cloud and AI have begun to merge so what we'll see in the future may be entirely different from what we have today," Hu tells CNBC.

Huawei plans to capitalize on these projections by improving its smartphone-related technology, Hu says. Strengthening brand presence and expanding retail and distribution channels are other plans the company is working on.

"We have our sights on the global market," Hu says. "China will make up a substantial portion but we're focused on global growth." His response to whether Apple and Samsung should be afraid of Huawei's rise? "Of course."

Huawei is also banking on its 5G expertise to set itself apart in the telecommunication equipment space. For Huawei, 5G is an opportunity … to strengthen our position as an industry leader," Hu says.

As it gears up for 5G, which will allow for greater data consumption via wireless networks, Huawei has adopted a long-term strategy committed to innovation, it's co-CEO says.

"We have announced that … till 2018, we will invest $600 million in R&D alone," Hu says, adding that 1,000 of the company's engineers and scientists are currently involved in 5G-related projects. Close to half of the company's 170,000 employees are engaged in research and development.

As for his thoughts on Samsung's Galaxy Note S7 recall woes, Hu says that the main takeaway for Huawei has been to ensure that such problems do not happen at the company. He also highlights the importance of improving quality control for Huawei's consumer electronics products from the development and innovation stage to the end-product phase.

"If the problems of our competitors result in an increase in our sales, it's a good thing for us," Hu says, "But we're more concerned about providing more reliable products."

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So far, early voting looks like good news for Hillary Clinton

Early voting numbers are rolling in, and campaigns are claiming their early voting victories.

Clinton looks like she is up in Virginia and North Carolina — on track to have higher numbers than President Barack Obama did in 2012. Iowa and Ohio look better for Donald Trump than they did for Mitt Romney, and voting registration has evened out between parties in Florida, a state where absentee voting has typically swayed Republicans. Looking at the numbers in swing states, things are looking up for the Clinton campaign; CNN reported that Clinton's numbers in Arizona — which are also better than Obama's in 2012 — might bring the typically red state into play as well.

University of Florida voter turnout expert Michael McDonald concluded for the Huffington Post that early voting results seem to be consistent with what polling has been telling us so far: Clinton has a slight edge in Florida and North Carolina, and has a bit of a sore spot in Iowa, where Trump is currently leading by 3.7 points, according to the RealClearPolitics average.

In other words, "despite weakness for Clinton in the Midwest, Clinton looks well-positioned in other states Trump still needs for an Electoral College victory," McDonald writes.

These are good signs for Hillary Clinton: Early voting is beginning to reflect her lead in the polls. But it's important to remember not to read too much into early voting numbers; they give an incomplete, and at times misleading, picture of the election. They are, however, a good judge of voters' eagerness and decidedness, which can be a source of encouragement — or discouragement — for campaigns.

Early voting is usually a good measure of enthusiasm; lots of early voters means lots of decided voters.

Democratic early voting surged in North Carolina after the in-person voting period opened on October 20. Democrats led Republicans by more than 13 percentage points by the end of October 23, which could indicate that "there may be some lack of enthusiasm in North Carolina for the Republican ticket," according to Paul Gronke, the director of Reed College's Early Voting Information Center. However, Gronke says at this point the differences in actual ballots are "marginal."

While Republicans still have a slight edge in voting registration in Florida (42 percent to Democrats' 40 percent), it is a very preliminary indication that Florida may not be seeing the new Republican voters the Trump camp might have hoped for. It's "a good sign for Clinton in a state that was extremely close in 2012," Barry Burden, an early voting expert and political scientist with the University of Wisconsin Madison said. (Especially as it becomes increasingly apparent that the Trump campaign did not push mail-in ballots with the Republican electorate.) Currently, Florida Republicans lead Democrats in returned mail-in ballots at a much smaller margin than in 2012.

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And while there doesn't seem to be much enthusiasm for either candidate this year, there is some speculation that people voting against the opposing candidate rather than affirmatively voting for their candidate might bring people to the polls.

When the early voting periods were about to open, McDonald told CNBC he was watching the Hispanic and rural white vote. "There is speculation that Trump's rhetoric could entice Hispanics to vote against him, and there is some evidence in polls that Hispanic voting enthusiasm is running higher than normal," he told CNBC.

The same theory can be applied with other demographics of voters, Gronke said.

"Trump continues to make statements that alienate African-American voters, and he struggles to get beyond 2 percent in some state polls. Under that circumstance, and faced with a well-oiled Democratic [get-out-the-vote] machine, why would African-American voters wait?" Gronke told me in September, noting that Trump also doesn't seem to have much of an early voter ballot-chasing operation.

"All of this might lead to an early electorate that is even more Democratic and more diverse than in the Obama elections — but all of this is contingent on all kinds of assumptions," Gronke said.

It's important to remember — and a general scan of contradicting headlines on early voting from the New York Times to Fox News will show you — that it's still early to say definitively that these early voting numbers indicate final results:

"It is quite difficult to discern what the election results will be from early voting numbers," Burden said. "The patterns do not tell a coherent national story. … Ballots are coming in at different rates for the parties in each state. The messages appear to differ from one state to the next."

And as McDonald warns in his weekly update on the early voting numbers for Huffington Post: "These are still early hints of the direction of the election. There is still much time left in the election, and these numbers can be affected by how election officials run the election, campaign strategies to mobilize voters, and voters' behaviors."

There are a lot of limitations: States reporting early voting totals don't always include all counties; some states require party registration, like North Carolina, while others, like Wisconsin, don't; and numbers derived from party registration are fallible. These distinctions can explain some of the early results. While Clinton is outperforming Trump in Nevada, the state might favor Democrats because of the concentration of early voting data coming from Clark County, where Las Vegas is, and Washoe County, where Reno is (two Democratic-leaning regions in the state). Things in Ohio might be looking up for Trump because there isn't as much of an early voting history in Democratic counties, Burden explains.

University of Denver political scientist Seth Masket crunched the numbers forFiveThirtyEight on how well early voting numbers predicted the final tally in past elections. He simply concluded, "The relationship is positive, but it's pretty noisy. In other words, knowing how a party is doing in early voting doesn't tell you much about how it will do once all the votes are counted." In fact, he found that looking at early voting numbers in 2012 would give you "wildly misleading" results:

Democrats maintained substantial leads among early voters in North Carolina, Louisiana and West Virginia, and were trailing by a relatively narrow margin in Oklahoma, but still lost those states when all the votes were counted. Republicans won early voters in Pennsylvania and Colorado but lost the final tallies there. Maryland was a safely Democratic state in 2012, but the 75 percent of the early vote that went the Democrats' way was a far cry from the 63 percent of the total vote they won once voting was finished.

But early voting numbers confirming early polling is a good sign — and while there are a lot of factors to take into consideration before drawing conclusions, the numbers are positive indications for Clinton, especially taking past early voting trends into consideration.

Put simply: Early voters are decided voters, Gronke told me when early voting started in September. "Individuals who cast an early ballot make up their minds early," he says.

There has been a shift in early voting demographics in the past two decades. "Prior to 2008, these 'decided' early voters matched demographic patterns that are well-established in American politics," Gronke said; they were older, educated, wealthier, ideological, and highly partisan. And for the most part, particularly with mail-in voters, these early voters mostly leaned Republican, which can also be attributed to a strong GOP push for mail-in absentee voting in the 1990s and 2000s. Meanwhile, in-person early voters tend to lean more toward Democrats. North Carolina this year is a good example of how this plays out — Republicans led mail-in voting, and Democrat early voting turnout shot up when in-person voting windows opened.

Barack Obama's presidential campaign made a big stride with Democratic early voting in 2008, targeting areas with higher Democratic voter potential — areas that also had higher populations of African-American voters. Black churches used Sunday services to push people to the polls in what they called "souls to the polls" initiatives, University of Wisconsin's Burden recalls.

It was wildly successful. In North Carolina in 2008, more than 70 percent of African Americans voted during the early voting period, Jennifer Clark, counsel at New York University's Brennan Center for Justice, said — a trend that continued into 2012. Early voting in North Carolina is running slightly behind the pace of 2012, according to McDonald's analysis.

While African-American voters were not typically billed as early voters, Gronke notes that black Americans fit the behavioral profile of a "decided voter."

"There was very little that would change the minds of many African Americans, particularly in 2008, when they had the first opportunity ever to cast a ballot for an African-American presidential candidate," Gronke said. "Why wait?"

Some argue that early voting "limits the set of information available to voters," as Eugene Kontorovich and John McGinnis wrote at Politico, but Clark says "that argument tends to not give voters enough credit."

Some states opened early voting windows more than a month before Election Day — some before presidential debates — but most early voting happens closer to Election Day and after debates.

According to Gronke, who said he asks survey questions on this regularly, there is "virtually no evidence of 'voter regret.'"

There are clear reasons why voters like early voting reforms: There are long lines at the polls on Election Day, and early voting expands voters' options, especially when it comes to missing work or school.

But there are also political and administrative incentives for early voting, Burden said.

"Voters like it — politicians like to make them happy, and the party and candidates like early voting because there is the certainty of banking voters before Election Day," he said, noting that early voting is likely less of a hassle and less expensive for polling administrators.

Whether it is an effective way to get out the vote is still up for debate. Burden's research found early voting actually decreased turnout, and the surge in 2008 has remained relatively stagnant since, possibly implying it might have had more to do with the candidate than the actual voting reform.

Burden attributes the decrease in voter turnout to a "dilution of the power of Election Day" — that having many days of voting reduces the pressure to vote altogether.

But not everyone agrees. Gronke's study cites research showing the opposite — early voting can increase voter turnout by 2 to 4 percent, especially when offered with accessible polling places and after-work and weekend hours, Clark adds. So it may matter more how early voting is implemented than purely whether the state offers it.

Either way, turning back now would be more disruptive than just expanding the practice, Burden said.

"There is an asymmetric effect," he said: With more and more people using early voting and liking it, rolling back early voting would do more harm to turnout.

There has been tremendous growth in early voting opportunities in the past two election cycles — 37 states and the District of Columbia offered some form of early voting this year. Even so, there have been attempts to roll back the reform.

Proponents of early voting say it's just a bipartisan debate and that the arguments against early voting hold little water.

"There is nothing about the policy that is intrinsically Democratic or Republican, because we see this became popular regardless of the political leaning," Clark tells me. The controversy comes with where these rollbacks are happening: swing states.

States like North Carolina and Ohio have become early voting battlegrounds, where Republican-controlled state legislatures have tried to cut in-person early voting days, which tend to favor Democrats. Advocates for reducing early voting argue it leads to more voter fraud, though there is no substantive evidence that voter fraud is a problem. In 2014, the US Government Accountability Office concluded that the rate of voter fraud is between 0.1 percent and zero percent.

And according to Clark, voter fraud is more common with mail-in ballots — which are not being contested — rather than in-person voting. In North Carolina, Republican lawmakers were even making the argument that voters could die between their early vote and Election Day.

There's also some explicit evidence of the partisan politics behind these efforts, after a GOP consultant told the Washington Post that the push in North Carolina was to minimize African-American Democratic voters.

"Look, if African Americans voted overwhelmingly Republican, they would have kept early voting right where it was," the consultant, Carter Wrenn, said. "It wasn't about discriminating against African Americans. They just ended up in the middle of it because they vote Democrat."

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So far, early voting looks like good news for Hillary Clinton

Booz Allen says ex-FBI director conducting review after employee arrest

Booz Allen Hamilton said on Thursday it had asked a former FBI director to conduct a review of the firm's security, personnel, and management processes and practices after the arrest of a former National Security Agency contractor employed by the firm charged with stealing classified information.

Robert Mueller's review began on Oct. 19, Booz Allen said in a statement.

Harold Thomas Martin was taken into custody in Maryland in August. Government lawyers said last week they would prosecute Martin under an espionage law, a move carrying far more severe penalties than previously announced charges.

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Booz Allen says ex-FBI director conducting review after employee arrest

A new White House proposal targets a hidden culprit holding down Americans' pay

This week the White House proposed a new plan to increase labor market competition and wage growth in the United States — one that prominently featured a call to state governments to rein in "noncompete agreements." These arrangements — far more widespread than most people think — prohibit employees from leaving to join or start firms within the same industry as their existing employer.

By reducing barriers to employee mobility and entrepreneurship, the White House seeks to both help firms hire the best workers they can and give individuals the ability to move to the job that is best for them.

Noncompetes are really nothing new — historians date the first case to 1414. They were initially used by master craftsmen who sought to prevent freshly graduated apprentices from setting up shop in the same town where they'd trained.

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So why are they suddenly becoming the focus of significant public scrutiny? The pros and cons of noncompetes have been hotly debated for the last two decades in tech circles — with the arguments centering on whether noncompete enforceability reduces inventor mobility (it does: see here and here), and whether it is good or bad for innovation in general (the evidence points toward bad, but the jury is still out). But the lack of broader public interest is better explained by a simple fact: Noncompetes are private, known only the parties who agree to them. There is no public repository of noncompetes and no regular surveys that ask about them. In short, their lack of observability makes them inherently challenging to study.

In the last year, however, a number of investigative efforts have revealed noncompetes in a variety of surprising places: Firms have imposed them on minimum-wage sandwich makers, for example, and on teenage camp counselors. In one particularly shocking example, Spencer Woodman, at the Verge, revealed that temporarily employed Amazon packers promised that for 18 months after they left their jobs at Amazon they would not:

engage in or support the development, manufacture, marketing, or sale of any product or service that competes or is intended to compete with any product or service sold, offered, or otherwise provided by Amazon…

Is there any job that that language would not apply to?

At the same time, Norman Bishara of the University of Michigan, J.J. Prescott, also of the University of Michigan, and I produced the first large-scale, national survey of the use of noncompetes, enabling us to quantify how pervasive these contracts are. The data shows that roughly 30 million labor force participants are currently bound by a noncompete — nearly one in five American workers — and that many of them are not the high-skill tech workers that might naturally come to mind. For example, we estimate that while those earning more than $150,000 have essentially a 50 percent chance of working under a noncompete, those earning between $20,000 and $40,000 still have a 15 percent chance of doing so.

The combination of these troubling anecdotes and data showing that noncompetes are systematically used even in low-skill, low-paying jobs jolted policymakers into action. They realized that low-skill workers are 1) unlikely to possess legitimate business interests (trade secrets or client lists) that would damage a firm; 2) in no position to properly consider or negotiate the terms of the noncompete; and 3) especially susceptible to threats over violating a contract that bears their signature. Indeed, we findthat only 6 percent of low skilled workers negotiate over their noncompetes, and that noncompetes are powerful deterrents to the mobility and entrepreneurship of that sub-population. These findings form the basis of the White House's first proposal:

Ban non-compete clauses for categories of workers, such as workers under a certain wage threshold; workers in certain occupations that promote public health and safety; workers who are unlikely to possess trade secrets; or those who may suffer undue adverse impacts from non-competes, such as workers laid-off or terminated without cause.

Some of these recommendations can already be seen in recent bills or proposals, such as the ban for low-wage workers that passed over the summer in Illinois, and the recent proposal to ban them for low-wage workers in New York.

The second of the White House proposals has to do with the transparency and fairness of noncompete agreements. Two recent academic articles find that firms often delay the offering of a noncompete until after the employee has accepted a job, and that this delay helps to explain the lack of negotiation we see over such agreements. (Economic theory suggests that employees ought to negotiate noncompetes precisely as they negotiate salary, but we don't see that happening in many contexts.)

As the White House detailed in a state-by-state guide to current noncompete rules, in 35 states firms can delay the onset of a noncompete and it will be fully enforced in court.The result is that in these states firms have an incentive to hide the noncompete in a pile of papers to be signed on a worker's first day or even delay the onset of the noncompete further, until the worker has essentially no bargaining power.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, recent research has shown that wages are relatively higher for workers in states that require employers to either provide employees time to consider the noncompete or explicitly provide employees with some sort of compensation, such as a bonus, in exchange for signing.

The White House therefore also recommended this week that states require that noncompetes be presented before a job or promotion has been accepted — and also that companies ought to be required to give workers something, in exchange for signing a noncompete agreement, beyond a promise that they get to keep their job.

These recommendations have already been enacted in Oregon and New Hampshire, which require that a noncompete agreement be introduced before someone accepts a job. Currently, there is a bill in the Senate, theMobility and Opportunity for Vulnerable Employees Act, or MOVE Act, that — in addition to banning noncompete agreements in contracts for low-income workers — would require employers to notify workers at the time of the job offer if they were going to use a noncompete.

The third of the White House proposals underscores how states handle noncompetes that are deemed unenforceable. There are two primary concerns: First, in more than half of the states in the US, courts that deem a contract to be overly broad will rewrite it to be less broad before enforcing it. This "reformation" approach creates obvious incentives for firms to write broad contracts (such as Amazon's) because in the worst case scenario the contract will be somewhat reduced in scope but still enforced. Nevertheless, overly broad contracts may still have strong deterrent effects on worker mobility and entrepreneurship if individuals do not know that the terms are unenforceable as written.

Second, noncompetes can have effects even in states where they are not enforced. Noncompetes in California and North Dakota are largely unenforceable in court, for example, but recent research suggests that they are used just as frequently in those states as they are in states where they are enforceable. Why such unenforceable noncompetes are used so frequently is an open question, though a recent paper points to an information gap between what employees believe about the enforceability of noncompetes and their actual enforceability. That's why the White House suggests states

[i]ncentivize employers to write enforceable contracts, and encourage the elimination of unenforceable provisions by, for example, promoting the use of the "red pencil doctrine," which renders contracts with unenforceable provisions void in their entirety.

Currently, the MOVE Act and the New York proposal include damage provisions, which allow employees to sue firms for writing noncompetes expressly forbidden by law. The "red pencil" doctrine is used in Nebraska, Virginia, and Wisconsin.

Not all will agree with the policies outlined by the White House proposal — which is not surprising, given how controversial noncompetes are. For example, some may suggest that firms need enforceable noncompetes to invest in the training of their low-skill workers. This claim has not been examined specifically in the context of low-wage workers, but the evidence suggests that technical workers are the ones who experience the most training benefits as a result of enforceable noncompetes.

Nevertheless, the set of proposals set forth by the White House are based in empirical evidence and reflect a deep knowledge of state law. They provide a blueprint for sensible reform which, if adopted, ought to increase fairness in the labor market and increase wages and entrepreneurship in the US.

Regardless of how you feel about the policies, however, the White House should be applauded for their commitment to bring significantly more data to bear on an important issue that has flown under the radar for too long.

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A new White House proposal targets a hidden culprit holding down Americans' pay